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Will this AI initiative pay back? Build the case your CFO will sign.
A three-year view with realistic adoption and the full cost of running AI, not just building it. You get NPV, payback, ROI and how far the benefits can fall before the case breaks.
CloudStraight · AI Business Case Calculator
01Annual benefit at full adoption
What the initiative is worth per year once people use it fully. Count only benefits finance would agree are real.
Helper: value of time saved
Time saved is only worth money if it reduces hiring, overtime or contractors, or moves people to revenue work. Result: €0k per year (46 working weeks).
Time savedFrom the helper above
External spend, licences, outsourcing, errors and rework removed
Margin on additional revenue, not the revenue itself
Expected yearly value: fraud, penalties, downtime, write-offs
02Adoption ramp
Share of the full benefit actually achieved each year. Few initiatives exceed 50% in year one.
03One-off costs
Spent before or at go-live (year 0).
Design, development, integration, testing
Pipelines, cleansing, labelling, access
Process redesign, training, communication
04Running costs per year
The costs that are usually left out. They continue every year the solution is live.
Compute, storage, model and token charges
Managed service or vendor support, updates, licences
Product owner, operators, reviewers
Quality checks, security, audit, compliance
05Discount rate
Your cost of capital or hurdle rate. If unsure, 10% is a reasonable starting point.
Cash flow and stress test
How the numbers are calculated
- Yearly benefit = annual benefit at full adoption × that year's adoption.
- Net cash flow: year 0 = one-off costs; years 1 to 3 = benefit − running costs. Cash flows are assumed at year end.
- NPV discounts each year at your rate. IRR is the rate at which NPV is zero.
- Payback is when cumulative (undiscounted) cash flow turns positive, assuming even monthly flows within a year.
- 3-year ROI = (total benefits − total costs) ÷ total costs, undiscounted.
- Break-even buffer = how far all benefits can fall before NPV reaches zero.
- Verdict: "Strong case" when NPV is positive, payback is within 18 months and benefits can fall at least 30% before break-even; "Fund in stages" when NPV is positive otherwise; "Reshape" when NPV is zero or negative.
- Taxes, depreciation and financing are left out. Add them with your finance team for the final submission.
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We'll review your assumptions against what similar initiatives on AWS cost to build and run, and show you where the numbers look optimistic.
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